2026 Open Championship odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors
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- Scottie Scheffler is the +700 favorite to become the first back-to-back Open champion since Tiger Woods in 2005-06, with top-25 finishes in all five career Open starts, though his Round 1 scoring has slid from leading the tour three straight years to 34th this season.
- Rory McIlroy (+850) is chasing a seventh major that would tie Harry Vardon's British record, with a Jekyll-and-Hyde recent Open history: three top-10s and three finishes 46th-or-worse across his last six starts, plus a T4 at Royal Birkdale in 2017.
- SportsLine's model — built by DFS pro Mike McClure — has nailed 17 majors including five straight Masters, and simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times to generate the projections.
- Wyndham Clark (+3300) is the model's fade pick after 13 non-U.S.-Open major starts yielded just one top-20 finish and six missed cuts, compounded by ranking 83rd in driving accuracy and 65th in greens in regulation.
- Royal Birkdale — one of the 10 shortest courses on the 2026 PGA Tour schedule with over 100 bunkers — hosts the Open beginning Thursday, July 16, and last staged it in 2017 when Jordan Spieth (+8000 this year) won the Claret Jug.
- Americans have won the last three Opens (Scheffler, Schauffele, Harman) and haven't taken four straight since 2003-06, with Schauffele, DeChambeau, Cameron Young and Clark among the U.S. contenders trying to extend the streak.
Why it matters: Royal Birkdale's short, bunker-heavy layout (100+ traps) neutralizes bombers and rewards precision, reshaping the leaderboard math in ways that hurt long-hitters like Clark but match Scheffler's elite strokes-gained: total profile. With Scheffler gunning for Tiger-era history and McIlroy one major from tying Vardon's British record, this round carries legacy stakes that no odds sheet captures.
