Crypto Funds Trade Fed Rate Path, Not Exit: CoinShares — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- CoinShares head of research James Butterfill argued Bitcoin is "trading like gold again, but the Fed still sets the ceiling" near $80,000, and that investors are "trading the rate path" rather than exiting the asset class.
- Roughly $100 million exited digital asset investment products immediately after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, which flagged that inflation progress had been "modest."
- Crypto fund flows reversed to $1 billion by Sept. 4 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller pointed to "disinflation" signs and said he was inclined to keep rates steady in September if upcoming inflation data confirmed progress.
- Fed Funds futures priced a roughly 60% probability of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting, per CME Group data.
- The US Treasury announced plans to double long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, running Sept. 9 through Nov. 4, coinciding with Bitcoin climbing from the low $60,000s to above $80,000 during the month.
- 21shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder wrote that the rally may reflect "growing interest in de-risking exposure to the US specifically," layered with equity sell-offs, yield-curve shifts, and Iran-war-driven oil swings — not crypto-specific catalysts.
- Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before year-end on the liquidity backdrop.
Why it matters: With the FOMC meeting on Sept. 16 and rate-hike odds near 60%, crypto faces a binary catalyst where a hawkish Fed could unwind Bitcoin's August climb from the low $60,000s; the Treasury's doubled bond buybacks through Nov. 4 add a competing liquidity force that could cushion or amplify the reaction.
Ask SkimNews
