Iran's fractured leadership overshadows Hormuz deal
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- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told China's Xinhua on August 5 that communication with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has been "difficult recently," and Iranian regime media reported Pezeshkian was taken to a secret Tehran location and allowed only minutes with a man "presented as" the supreme leader.
- Radical elements of Iran's Revolutionary Guards have seized ultimate power by using Mojtaba as a figurehead, isolating both him and the Guards and triggering a campaign of "pervasive mutual suspicion" in which anyone can be accused of being a traitor.
- Iran's command structures have been devolved to local levels to preempt US decapitation strikes, and Israel is rumored to have contacts with senior Iranian officials who could stage a coup — making "a clear, efficient decision-making process" impossible.
- Iran retains manufacturing capacity for missiles and drones with apparently ample stockpiles, meaning the country is in "deep disarticulation and disarray" but not defeated — a failing state that "can survive and remain dangerous."
- Gulf states asked Beijing to intervene with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the lack of results suggests China "has no one to talk to in Iran," sidelining Beijing from the region's politics increasingly dominated by the US and Israel.
- The emerging Iran-Oman deal would allegedly let Iran maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, but the US may seek to block international recognition of that control — a significant setback for Iran — before the midterm elections.
- Regional states once divided over how to cope with Iran are now converging on ideas to limit Tehran's influence and will likely hasten efforts to bypass the strait, "further isolating the religious leadership."
Why it matters: The US gains leverage by potentially blocking international recognition of Iran's claimed Hormuz control before the midterm elections, while Gulf states — now converging to limit Tehran's influence — will accelerate plans to bypass the strait entirely. But Iran retains missile and drone manufacturing capacity with ample stockpiles, so even a failing state could generate instability from Central Asia to the Mediterranean while sidelining China.
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