Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction, odds, time: Week 5 college football picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Ohio State (3-1, No. 5) bounced back from a 24-23 road loss at Texas with a 42-19 home win over Illinois behind junior QB Julian Sayin, and enters Saturday as a 14.5-point road favorite.
- Iowa (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) comes off a 20-19 upset road win at Michigan as time expired behind senior QB Hank Brown, with its defense allowing just 16 points to Northern Illinois and 13 at Iowa State in its first two games.
- SportsLine's projection model, after 10,000 simulations, projects 44 combined points and calls Under 45.5 with 52% confidence.
- Kinnick Stadium has long produced low-scoring games under Kirk Ferentz, with Iowa's last game and three of its last four going Under the total this season.
- Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Kinnick Stadium on CBS and Paramount+, and the model enters Week 5 on a 34-25 run on top-rated college football picks.
Why it matters: The model's Under pick cuts against the grain of a 14.5-point spread — heavy favorites usually inflate scoring, but Iowa's defense has surrendered just 16 and 13 points in its first two games. For bettors, the 52% Under hit rate offers a concrete contrarian angle on a game the market is pricing as a Buckeyes rout.
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