U.S. crude $100, S&P 500 down 6% amid Iran conflict
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- U.S. crude: up more than 60% year‑to‑date to nearly $100 a barrel, pushing U.S. gasoline to $4 a gallon.
- 10-year Treasury yield: climbed to 4.4% from about 4% before the war began.
- S&P 500: on track for a fifth straight weekly drop, down roughly 6% since the late‑February U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran.
- Nasdaq Composite: fell more than 10% from its October all‑time high, confirming a market correction.
- March payrolls: expected to add 48,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.5%, after February showed a 92,000‑job loss.
- Jim Baird: said any positive breakthrough in talks with Iran would boost investor sentiment, while a prolonged conflict would weigh on markets.
- David Bianco: noted rising yields are compressing valuations, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio slipping under 20 from over 22 earlier, still above its long‑term average.
Why it matters: Rising oil prices and 10‑year yields are tightening consumer budgets and pushing S&P 500 valuations lower, hurting price‑sensitive stocks; a modest jobs gain would buoy sentiment, while investors and firms that can absorb higher fuel costs stand to gain, whereas the broader market faces headwinds.
