Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction, odds, time: 2026 Week 4 college football picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Alabama dismantled Florida State 50-36 behind sophomore QB Keelon Russell's 320 passing yards, entering Saturday at 3-0 overall and 1-0 in SEC play
- South Carolina comes in at 2-1 after a 41-34 home loss to Mississippi State, with junior QB LaNorris Sellers accounting for 282 passing yards in the defeat
- Alabama is listed as a 12.5-point favorite over South Carolina at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, with kickoff set for 7 p.m. ET and the over/under at 54.5 points
- The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the game 10,000 times and is picking the Under (54.5), projecting 42 combined points — with the Under hitting in 59% of simulations
- The model cites South Carolina's tight defense in a physical SEC environment and the Gamecocks' inconsistent offense as reasons it sees a lower-scoring night game than the early-season Alabama-Florida State shootout suggested
- The SportsLine Projection Model was upgraded for the 2026 season to better factor in the transfer portal and is off to a 22-19 start on top-rated college football picks this season
Why it matters: The model is fading the public's likely Over lean — 59% Under across 10,000 simulations gives bettors a data-driven counter to a primetime SEC total that opened high after Alabama's 50-36 explosion against Florida State, with the spread pick hitting over 60% of sims also flagged.
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