UN Report: Cryosphere Damage Persists at 1.5C — SkimNews
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- International Cryosphere Climate Initiative and UN Environment Programme brought together 80 scientists, whose report says some overshoot of 1.5C is inevitable but long-term warming should be brought below 1C, ideally by 2150.
- UN Environment Programme reported last month that the world must cut emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 for a good chance of staying below 1.7C, with “no good outcomes” above 1.5C.
- Current policies would leave glacier ice in the Rockies, Alps, Iceland and Scandinavia below 10% at 2.8C of global heating, versus 20% to 35% remaining if warming is held to 1.5C.
- Hindu Kush Himalayas glaciers would retain 41% of their ice mass under current policies, compared with 83% if warming is limited to 1.5C; they supply water for nearly a quarter of humanity.
- Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting about six times faster than in the 1990s and would continue losing ice even if a brief overshoot ends and warming returns to 1.5C; scientists put the safe long-term limit for polar ice sheets closer to 1.0C, or lower.
- Glaciers would preserve only about 70% of their current volume over centuries if long-term warming fell to 0.8C; at a peak near 3C, nearly all near-surface permafrost would thaw, severe and possibly abrupt ocean-circulation disruption would become likely, and acidification would spread widely.
- James Kirkham cited Switzerland’s 20% glacier-ice loss in five years and an ice-rock avalanche on the Nepal-China border that killed thousands and left damage equal to 10% of Nepal’s GDP.
Why it matters: Bill Hare, the Climate Analytics CEO who was not involved in the report, said ice-sheet melt, rising seas and acidification are irreversible on human timescales. For the nearly quarter of humanity relying on Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers, current policies would leave 41% of ice mass rather than 83% at 1.5C; much cryosphere damage would remain permanent even after temperatures recede.
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