Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels
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- Bitcoin rallied more than 20% this week to heights not seen since May, last trading above $77,000
- Kalshi speculators estimate bitcoin will end 2026 at approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts on the prediction market platform
- Kalshi contracts ask traders to bet on whether bitcoin will trade within $5,000 ranges at midnight Jan. 1, 2027, with settlements using CF Benchmarks price data
- U.S. Treasury intervention to ease a bond market sell-off relieved pressure on risk assets and helped fuel the rally
- President Trump hosted crypto executives and regulators at the White House to push Congress to approve the market structure Clarity Act proposal
- Before Wednesday's rally, Kalshi traders' most likely year-end forecast for bitcoin was around $66,000
- The updated ~$75,000 forecast represents a slight decline from bitcoin's current trading levels above $77,000
Why it matters: The roughly $2,000 gap between Kalshi's $75,000 year-end estimate and bitcoin's current price above $77,000 implies prediction market traders see the 20% weekly rally losing steam, even as policy momentum — from the Treasury's bond market intervention to Trump's White House push for the Clarity Act — has clearly improved sentiment.
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