Iran-US Deal: What It Means for Your Wallet
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Iran and the US signed a peace deal on 18 June reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme were deferred 60 days, leaving the agreement's durability in question.
- UK petrol averaged 154.72p/litre as of Thursday versus 132.05p before the war, with diesel at 174.30p versus 141.6p, while US gasoline sat at $4.05/gallon (up from $2.94) and diesel at $5.06 (up from $3.81).
- Ofgem has already locked in a July price cap that will raise average UK household energy bills by 13% (£221/year) for 33 million households in England, Wales, and Scotland, regardless of the peace deal.
- Jet fuel prices spiked from $784/tonne to $1,838/tonne after the war began, have since fallen to roughly $967/tonne, but are expected to stay above pre-war levels for the rest of the year per Argus Media's Amaar Khan.
- UK inflation climbed from 3% in February to 3.3% in March before settling at 2.8% in April-May, while US inflation jumped from 2.4% to 4.2% and EU inflation rose from 2.1% to 3.3% over the same period.
- Bank of England held rates at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, the US Federal Reserve held at 3.5%-3.75%, and the European Central Bank raised rates to 2.25% (its first hike in nearly three years), all citing energy-price uncertainty from the conflict.
Why it matters: The deal is already pulling wholesale oil and gas prices down, but UK households still face a locked-in £221/year Ofgem bill hike in July and petrol roughly 17% above pre-war levels — meaning the relief is real but slow, and the BoE, Fed, and ECB are all holding or raising rates partly because war-driven inflation has not yet fully washed through.
Ask SkimNews
