Texans vs. Jaguars prediction, odds, time: 2026 NFL London game picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) are 2.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans (1-4) in the NFL Week 6 London game at Wembley Stadium, kicking off at 9:30 a.m. ET, with the over/under set at 42.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. will make his Texans debut after being traded from Arizona, joining Tank Dell to give quarterback C.J. Stroud a new receiving option with starting running back David Montgomery ruled out.
- SportsLine's model, which has simulated the game 10,000 times and is on a 57-46 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024, projects 45 combined points and takes the Over 42, clearing in 53% of simulations.
- Jacksonville's defense has held four of five opponents to 17 points or fewer, including a 19-17 win over the Eagles in London last week, while Stroud enters with six touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season.
- Trevor Lawrence is averaging 235 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns, facing a Texans pass defense ranked 26th in the league.
- Both cross-coverage headlines (CBS Sports included) zero in on Harrison's Houston debut, but the source buries the fact the Texans' only win this season was also a 26-3 score — the same margin by which they beat these Jaguars on their last London trip in 2019.
Why it matters: The Jaguars' 4-1 record and top-tier defense (four opponents held to 17 or fewer) clash with the model's Over pick, but the Texans' 26th-ranked pass defense and Lawrence's 235-yard average tilt the math toward points at Wembley — and bettors following the model's 57-46 documented run have a direct, stated edge to evaluate.
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