‘Off the charts’ El Niño is already the strongest since records began
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- James Hansen of Columbia University says the current El Niño's heat anomaly in the upper 300 meters of the equatorial Pacific already exceeds the 1997-98 super El Niño, calling the event "off the charts."
- Adam Scaife at the UK Met Office pushes back on the Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature index, noting its running mean sits about 2°C above normal versus 2.5°C at the 1997-98 peak — meaning that common measure hasn't yet surpassed the prior record.
- Daniel Swain of the California Institute for Water Resources sides with Hansen, saying daily Niño3.4 values are already the highest on record for this time of year and arguing that long-lag running means mask rapidly evolving events.
- The daily Niño3.4 reading hit 2.75°C earlier this month before easing back, but in November 2015 it reached nearly 3.1°C, so the current event hasn't yet matched 2015 on that raw measure, New Scientist notes.
- Scaife told New Scientist he has "never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts," and warned that if the forecast holds, 2026 will "far exceed" recent El Niño experience and its worldwide climate influences.
- Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University said the developing event could reach or exceed the 1877-1878 El Niño — blamed for famines that killed roughly 50 million people (3-4% of the global population at the time), mostly across Asia and South America.
Why it matters: Four named scientists agree the developing event will soon exceed prior El Niños on most measures, with Scaife flagging that no forecast has ever shown this intensity — making 2026 a benchmark year for global climate impacts. Fowler's comparison to the 1877-78 event, which caused roughly 50 million famine deaths across Asia and South America, underlines the stakes even at modern agricultural capacity.
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