US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say — SkimNews
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- US officials now believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, marking a significant shift from the years-long understanding that Xi wanted his military ready by 2027, the centenary of the People's Liberation Army
- Beijing may increasingly look to use force in 2028 and beyond if the Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term in Taiwan's election, especially if President Lai Ching-te wins reelection — one US official said "2028 becomes pretty sporty"
- Xi's anti-corruption campaign has kneecapped military readiness, leaving just two active officials on the formerly seven-member Central Military Commission and prompting China to fall short of its military objectives last year
- Trump has held off approving a $14 billion Taiwan arms package since his May trip to Beijing, calling it a "negotiating chip"; he has also downplayed invasion likelihood, saying Xi told him China would not invade during his presidency
- China is believed to have drawn a lesson from the Iran and Ukraine wars — the need to move quickly once any invasion begins to avoid getting bogged down in sustained conflict
- One US official said China's military still lacks readiness for "the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy"
Why it matters: The shift away from the 2027 deadline reframes years of US Asia-Pacific urgency built around that benchmark, and a DPP/Lai re-election would likely become the new trigger date for accelerated US military planning. Trump's $14 billion arms hold-off shows Taiwan policy is now openly leverage in his broader China negotiations.
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