US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely in 2027 despite 2027 timeline, sources say — SkimNews
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- US officials assess a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, citing military delays and Beijing's interest in the outcome of Taiwan's 2028 election.
- Beijing may increasingly consider force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwan's DPP wins a fourth consecutive term, especially if President Lai Ching-te wins reelection; one US official said "2028 becomes pretty sporty."
- Xi's anti-corruption campaign has hampered military readiness, leaving just two active officials on the formerly seven-member Central Military Commission, and China's 2025 military exercises were smaller and less threatening than in recent years.
- China is believed to have drawn a lesson from the wars in Iran and Ukraine that any invasion must be swift and decisive; one US official compared the operation's difficulty to the Allied invasion of Normandy.
- Xi has not rescinded his goal for the PLA to have the capabilities to take Taiwan by force by 2027, but the March US intelligence annual threat assessment said China did not, at that point, have a plan to invade in 2027.
- Trump has held off on approving a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan since his May trip to Beijing, describing it as a "negotiating chip."
Why it matters: The shift away from the 2027 timeline eases urgency for US defense planners but creates a new election-driven inflection point in 2028. Trump's hold on $14 billion in Taiwan arms as a "negotiating chip" sits in tension with the US strategy of arming Taiwan to hold off an invasion long enough for American intervention.
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