Trump may drop Iran nuclear deal for Hormuz reopening
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- Trump is privately telling senior aides he could walk away from a nuclear deal if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, with the WSJ reporting he views the shipping lane as a more achievable exit than a nuclear agreement.
- Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr laid out sweeping demands: billions in war reparations, end to the US naval blockade, troop withdrawal, full sanctions removal, release of frozen assets, and a halt to attacks on regional militia allies.
- Trump shared a social media post Friday titled "Donald Trump Won the Iran War" and told reporters a deal was "imminent," while also claiming he was prepared to launch the biggest US military attack since WWII before allies dissuaded him.
- Vice President JD Vance said the administration would keep pressuring Tehran for long-term changes, adding "we're in the middle of the game" — even as Trump searches for a victory narrative with less than three months until the midterm elections.
- Trump argues Iran cannot restart its nuclear program during his presidency after the US destroyed three major nuclear facilities in May 2025, saying US intelligence would detect any rebuild and the threat of renewed military action would serve as a lasting deterrent.
- Money is a major sticking point: Iran wants billions in reparations and frozen assets released, but Trump has ruled out giving American taxpayer money to Iran; the US had previously granted oil sanctions waivers last June as part of an interim ceasefire that collapsed after Iran attacked ships in the strait.
- The UAE said Iran launched a missile attack on one of its ships over the weekend, with Iran having shut the waterway after the war began in late February and sought to collect revenue from commercial vessels — moves US officials have rejected.
Why it matters: Trump's pivot from maximum military pressure to a Hormuz-only deal gives Iran significant leverage, and Iran's sweeping demands — billions in reparations, sanctions removal, US troop withdrawal — make even that narrow face-saving exit uncertain. With midterm elections under three months away and gas prices still elevated since the war began in late February, Trump needs a win he can sell, but Iran's terms look more like a surrender document than a concession.
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