Australia’s renewables transition is well under way – but meeting its 2030 target will be ‘extremely challenging’ — SkimNews
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- Australia's grid is now roughly 50% renewable, but reaching the Albanese government's 82% by 2030 requires building 8.5GW of wind and 9.5GW of solar in the next 3.5 years — more than the nation's entire existing wind capacity, per UNSW's Dr Dylan McConnell citing AEMO data.
- Green Energy Markets and IEEFA analysis found only about 11-12% of the wind and solar capacity needed for the 2030 target is currently under construction, with most of the 115 Capacity Investment Scheme projects (totalling 25.5GW of wind and solar) still lacking long-term power purchase agreements needed to start building.
- Victoria's Labor government announced a review of the Western Renewables Link transmission line (due 2029) and scrapped a renewable energy zone, while the opposition Coalition has proposed cancelling VNI West — moves Clean Energy Council's Chris O'Keefe called 'very disappointing from an industry perspective.'
- Queensland approved plans for the nation's largest datacentre after rejecting the federal government's push to power the industry with renewables, adding demand pressure on the grid at a time when renewable rollout is already lagging.
- An industry survey found 85% of renewable companies, investors and regulators said grid connection was the leading risk for new projects, while 81% said approvals remained a significant barrier; Prof Michael Brear of the University of Melbourne noted it takes roughly 8 years from concept to operation for a windfarm, with 5 spent on design and approval.
- Despite the gaps, more wind and solar was added to the grid in 2025 than in 2024, and renewables generated more power than fossil fuels for the first time in Q4 2025 — though Tristan Edis of Green Energy Markets warned governments 'can't afford to take their foot off the pedal.'
Why it matters: Investors won't commit to long-term power purchase agreements while coal closures remain uncertain — a catch-22 where keeping Yallourn and Eraring open suppresses the investment signal needed to replace them. With 85% of the industry citing grid connection as the top risk, Victoria's pause on the Western Renewables Link directly threatens the 2030 target.
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