Markets tilt toward September rate hikes: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin sealed its first weekly close above $80,000 since early May, though a liquidity wall around $80,560 continues to pin BTC/USD in a narrow range.
- CME FedWatch data shows markets pricing a 58.4% chance of a 0.25% Fed rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting, after August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs against a prior estimate of 56,000.
- Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole that softer CPI/PCE readings don't mean underlying inflation trends have "meaningfully improved," and markets have maintained a hawkish outlook despite President Trump renewing pressure for rate cuts on Truth Social.
- Japan's Ministry of Finance reported foreign reserves fell $79.57 billion from end-July after record yen intervention, holding USD/JPY near 155; Polymarket sees 98% odds of a 0.25% BOJ rate hike on Sept. 18.
- CryptoQuant warns the recent BTC rally is derivatives-driven, with aggregate open interest jumping $2.3 billion in a single session while 30-day rolling spot demand stays negative — a structure it calls unsustainable without real on-chain buying.
- Bitcoin's supertrend indicator produced its first weekly "buy" signal since November 2025, a setup that last appeared in January 2023 two months after the $15,600 cycle bottom.
Why it matters: Bitcoin's push above $80K is running on derivatives leverage with negative spot demand, a structure CryptoQuant explicitly flags as unsustainable for a sustained bull run. With Fed hike odds at 58.4% and August PPI and CPI prints due Thursday and Friday, the next two data releases will test whether bulls can break the $80,560 resistance wall — or trigger a flush toward the $60,000–$63,000 long-liquidation zone Glassnode identified below spot.
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