Yen intervention meets US inflation data: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin sealed its first weekly close above $80,000 since the week of May 11, but CoinGlass liquidity data shows resistance concentrated around $80,560 keeping BTC/USD pinned in a narrow range.
- US PPI and CPI inflation prints are due Thursday and Friday respectively, ahead of the Fed's September 16 rate decision, with CME FedWatch showing 58.4% odds of a 0.25% rate hike.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said summer CPI/PCE readings alone didn't support reassessing policy, while strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs (revised up from a 56,000 estimate) cemented hawkish expectations despite Governor Christopher Waller's support for a pause.
- Japan's Ministry of Finance reported foreign reserves fell $79.57 billion from end-July due to record yen intervention, with analysts warning Tokyo may struggle to sell US Treasuries for future yen support; Polymarket prices 98% odds of a 0.25% BOJ hike on September 18.
- CryptoQuant analysis shows Bitcoin's rally was derivatives-driven — open interest rose $2.3 billion (+9.24%) in a single session — while spot demand remains negative on a 30-day rolling basis, a structural concern for sustained upside.
- Bitcoin's supertrend indicator flipped green for the first time since November 2025, mirroring the early-2023 pattern where a weekly close above the line has historically never occurred within a bear market.
- Donald Trump renewed pressure on the Fed to cut rates via Truth Social, writing that "High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage," adding political friction to the September 16 decision.
Why it matters: With Fed rate-hike odds at 58.4% and two inflation prints arriving within 48 hours of the September 16 decision, Bitcoin's $80,000 support is being tested at the worst possible moment — derivatives-driven rallies without spot demand (OI up $2.3 billion in one session while realized cap lagged) have historically rolled over, and Japan's $79.57 billion intervention depletes its capacity to defend the yen without triggering US Treasury market backlash.
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