Broncos vs. Rams predictions, odds, spread, time: Week 3 'Sunday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Los Angeles Rams (1-1) visit the Denver Broncos (1-1) at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday Night Football, kickoff 8:20 p.m. ET, with Los Angeles installed as a 2.5-point favorite and the over/under set at 44.
- Rams receiver Puka Nacua (hip) is doubtful for the game, a notable absence for a Los Angeles offense powered by Matthew Stafford, who has completed 66.1% of his passes for 482 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions through two games.
- Denver quarterback Bo Nix has matched Stafford's 66.1% completion rate but trails in production with 419 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on the season.
- The SportsLine model, which entered Week 3 on a 53-41 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024, simulated Rams-Broncos 10,000 times and projects 43 combined points, with the Under 44 hitting in 60% of simulations.
- Denver's defense ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed (278.2) and third in points allowed (18.3) in 2025, while Los Angeles ranked 10th in points allowed at 20.4 — and the Under has hit in three of the past five meetings between the teams.
- Broncos are 9-1 at home since last September, a sharp contrast to the Rams, who were 5-4 on the road in 2025 despite reaching the NFC Championship Game.
- The SportsLine model also identifies one side of the spread hitting in well over 50% of simulations, though that pick is gated behind a SportsLine login.
- The Under has hit in three of the last four Rams games and five of the last six Broncos games, reinforcing the model's lean toward a low-scoring matchup.
Why it matters: The market has **Los Angeles** as a modest 2.5-point road favorite despite **Denver's** 9-1 home record since last September and a defense that allowed the second-fewest yards in the NFL in 2025 (278.2 per game). With **Puka Nacua** (hip) doubtful, the Rams lose a key weapon against a Broncos secondary that could exploit **Stafford's** two interceptions through two weeks. The model's 60% Under projection at a 44-point total creates a concrete edge for bettors, and the spread pick it touts — locked behind a paywall — represents the sharper contrarian read against the road-favorite line.
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