Met Office Forecasts Strongest El Niño in a Century
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- Met Office forecasts an El Niño event with Pacific sea temperatures expected to peak above 3C — already up 2C from normal — making it the largest since the 19th century, per head of long-range forecasting Prof Adam Scaife.
- Prof Adam Scaife called the forecast "unprecedented," saying he had "never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts" and that the expected magnitude is "unheard of in modern climate records".
- 2027 global temperatures are "very likely" to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and temporarily exceed 1.5C above preindustrial levels, with Met Office science fellow Dr Nick Dunstone and UCL's Bill McGuire both flagging a possible 1.7C.
- Prof Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University compared the developing event to the 1877-78 El Niño, which caused famines killing around 50 million people — roughly 3-4% of the global population at the time.
- UK autumn weather is expected to bring increased rainfall and storminess around November, per the Met Office, while South America and the west Pacific face severe droughts and southern Africa and north-east Australia heightened drought risk.
- The UN warned in early August that El Niño conditions could push 50 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year.
- England's reservoir storage stands at 63% — 16 percentage points below the long-term average — with seven reservoirs classed as "exceptionally low," and Wimbleball, Clatworthy and Clywedog all less than half full.
Why it matters: A super-El Niño peaking above 3C in the Pacific would push global temperatures past the 1.5C threshold in 2027, and Met Office scientists say they've never modeled a signal this intense. The UK — already 71.3% in drought with seven reservoirs "exceptionally low" — is banking on the promised November storms for relief.
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