Miami vs. Florida State prediction, odds, time: Week 7 college football picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- No. 3 Miami (5-0, 3-0 ACC) hosts Florida State (3-3, 1-2 ACC) at 7 p.m. ET Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium, roughly 75 years after the rivals' first-ever meeting, with Miami a 19.5-point favorite and the total set at 56.5.
- SportsLine's model ran the game 10,000 times and projects 58 combined points, with the Over hitting 53% of simulations and one side of the spread covering in over 60% of runs.
- Miami's offense leads the nation at 49.6 points per game, with quarterback Darian Mensah ranking first nationally in both completion percentage and passing efficiency.
- Florida State's defense ranks 83rd in scoring, allows 6.1 yards per play (second-most in the ACC), and has surrendered 47 points per game across its two road contests, both of which went Over.
- Florida State's offense has scored on 23 of 24 red-zone trips (96%, sixth-best in the FBS) and averages 2.7 rushing touchdowns per game (third in the ACC), giving the Noles enough output to push the total.
- SportsLine's college football model enters Week 7 on a 48-40 run against the spread on top-rated picks, a streak it says has returned more than $400 for every $100 wagered.
Why it matters: With Miami averaging 49.6 ppg and FSU allowing 47 ppg on the road, the model sees the Over 56.5 as a modestly better-than-coins-flip lean (53%) — and bettors who have followed the model's top-rated CFB picks have banked a documented +$400-per-$100 return over its 48-40 run, putting real money on the line for Saturday's primetime ACC clash.
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