Bitcoin Rangebound at $62,500; September Bull Run Seen
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Bitcoin trades rangebound between roughly $61,000 and $65,000 after dropping to local lows near $62,500 post-weekly close, with $64,000 repeatedly rejecting breakout attempts and trader Daan Crypto Trades noting BTC sits "right in the middle" of the range.
- Trader Ryker predicts Bitcoin's next bull cycle will begin in September or October 2026, arguing market makers will frontrun the 2027 consensus bottom and leave sidelined traders exposed.
- Trader Jelle flags a weekly chart "death cross" — the 50-week crossing the 100-week SMA — as a historical reversal signal, noting the previous such cross in September 2022 preceded the last bear-market bottom.
- Iran's weekend closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed US WTI crude back to $75/barrel, up nearly 12% from July lows, while two-year Treasury yields jumped above 2.35% — their highest in 16 months.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, with June CPI and PPI prints preceding the Fed's late-July rate decision; CME FedWatch currently prices a 0.25% hike for September.
- CryptoQuant data shows wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC distributed a net ~67,000 BTC on July 13 — the cohort's heaviest selling since February 19 — a pattern contributor Amr Taha said historically preceded both rebounds and further declines.
- Trader Michaël van de Poppe pushed back on the Iran narrative, arguing the correction "has little to do with everything in the Middle East" and instead stems from rising Japanese bond yields as the yen hits multidecade lows.
Why it matters: The $64,000 ceiling has now rejected multiple breakout attempts, so a decisive move either direction will force positioning: trader Lennaert Snyder sees $63,600 as the next short entry with $57,800 as a "healthy" downside target, while midsize holders' 67,000 BTC distribution on July 13 reflects the fractured conviction that historically precedes both bear-market bottoms and further leg down.
