US Iran War: Both Remaining Strategies Look Doomed — SkimNews
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- The U.S. Iran War has failed to achieve its four stated objectives — regime change, dismantling long-range ballistic missiles, eliminating nuclear enrichment, and halting Tehran's support for regional proxies — prompting officials to cycle through sanctions, strikes, and now two competing exit options.
- Operation Economic Outcast tightened sanctions over the past four weeks to inflict economic defeat on Iran, but the strategy has 'flagged,' consistent with political scientist David Siegel's finding that U.S. sanctions 'don't work' and former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's concession that they produced political outcomes 'much less than we would ideally like.'
- The Pentagon has extended troop deployments in the Middle East through 2027 to support a 'mowing the lawn' option of formalizing periodic disproportionate strikes, modeled on Israel's post-October 7, 2023 Gaza campaign.
- Trump favors the alternative of declaring victory and withdrawing, backed by former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent, who resigned in protest and argued on X that the U.S. should 'reset the terms of the deal' by removing troops and ships from the region.
- Iran has tied Strait of Hormuz navigation to U.S. restraint of Israel, expanding ceasefire demands to Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine after the U.S. failed to force an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon under the June 17 agreement.
- A Politico survey of diplomats from 15 countries described Trump's deal-making as 'reactive, with no clear direction,' while Torn CEO told the Financial Times in August the situation resembles a 'Ukraine-style stalemate' lasting months or years.
- Iran's Strait of Hormuz leverage has pushed diesel prices to their highest ever levels, and averting economic catastrophe now requires the U.S. to meet conditions — Israeli restraint — it has so far been unwilling to accept.
Why it matters: American consumers face record diesel prices as Iran's Strait of Hormuz chokehold persists, and neither option on the table — perpetual 'mowing the lawn' strikes through 2027 or declaring victory and withdrawing — reopens the waterway, because Iran demands U.S. restraint of Israel, a condition Washington already refused once in Lebanon under the June 17 agreement.
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