US Iran war slipping into Ukraine-style stalemate — SkimNews
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- U.S. has failed to secure its four primary objectives in the Iran War — regime change, dismantling long-range ballistic missiles, eliminating nuclear enrichment, and halting Tehran's support for regional proxies — after both Operation Economic Outcast sanctions and kinetic strikes fell short.
- Pentagon has extended troop deployments in the Middle East through 2027 to support a 'mowing the lawn' strategy of periodic disproportionate strikes, modeled on Israel's pre-Oct. 7 Gaza campaign, per the Wall Street Journal.
- Trump reportedly favors the alternative 'declare victory and walk away' option, backed by former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent, who resigned in protest and argued the U.S. should 'reset the terms of the deal' by removing troops and ships from the region.
- Iran has tied reopening the Strait of Hormuz to U.S. conditions it considers non-negotiable — removal of sanctions (requiring an uphill Congressional vote) and reining in Israel — the latter a demand that has only expanded since a June 17 agreement in which Washington failed to force an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
- Political scientists like David Siegel and officials like Janet Yellen have publicly acknowledged that decades of sanctions have failed to produce desired political outcomes, with Siegel noting sanctioned states now have strong incentives to hold out thanks to Chinese economic alternatives.
- Industry voices are bracing for a long conflict: the CEO of Danish shipping firm Torn told the Financial Times in August that Gulf leadership is preparing for a 'Ukraine-style stalemate' lasting 'months or years,' and a 2025 Politico survey of diplomats from 15 countries described Trump's deal-making as 'reactive, with no clear direction.'
Why it matters: Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz has already pushed diesel prices to their highest levels on record, and neither of the two strategies under U.S. consideration — extended strikes or a walk-away declaration — can reopen the waterway without concessions to Tehran that Washington has refused to make, locking American consumers into sustained energy costs.
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