Bills vs. Raiders prediction, odds, time: 2026 NFL Week 6 picks by proven model — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Buffalo Bills arrived in Las Vegas on a short week after a 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night, ranking among the NFL's highest-scoring teams at 32.8 points per game (tied with Detroit for the league lead).
- Las Vegas Raiders have dropped two straight after a 3-0 start, including a 45-17 blowout loss to New England, and average 26.4 points per game under Kirk Cousins.
- James Cook powers the Buffalo ground game with 532 rushing yards and five touchdowns heading into Sunday's 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at Allegiant Stadium.
- SportsLine's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has produced a $5,000-plus return for $100 bettors on top-rated NFL picks, projects 57 combined points and the over clearing at 56%.
- Both defenses are porous enough to justify the projection: Buffalo is surrendering 28.2 points per game while Las Vegas allows 25.8 — yet both teams are also 4-1 against the spread this season.
- Injuries cloud the over play, with Bills wideouts DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer (shoulder) and Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (knee) all limited in practice this week.
Why it matters: The model is backing the over at 53.5 with both offenses scoring at top-10 rates and both defenses giving up 25-plus points — essentially a pick that hinges on trading punches rather than defense winning the day. With both teams 4-1 ATS and injuries piling up at receiver and tight end, the 5.5-point spread will turn on whether Buffalo's short-week travel or Las Vegas's two-game skid matters more in 10,000 simulated outcomes.
Ask SkimNews
