El Niño Projected to Cause 450,000 Deaths by February — SkimNews
Get the Energy newsletter
Daily energy & climate — solar, EVs, oil, the policy fights and tech bets shaping the transition. Free.
- Climate scientists at the Climate Impact Lab project 451,000 additional heat deaths globally from the super El Niño between June 2026 and February 2027, with elevated deaths expected to continue through June or July 2027.
- Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are the most affected countries in the next six months; the US ranks in the top 20 with 3,500 projected additional heat deaths.
- The current El Niño burst through the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon on Monday, several months before its expected peak, prompting scientists to call it "mind-blowing" and "Godzilla-level."
- The projections used peer-reviewed methods tracking month-by-month temperature-death relationships across 24,378 regions, combining regional baselines from 1996-2025 with El Niño temperature forecasts.
- The World Food Programme warned in August that El Niño impacts could push about 50 million people into acute hunger and drive food prices up.
- Researchers called the event a "postcard from our future," noting temperatures are being pushed to levels the climate crisis is projected to deliver in 20 years — with researchers urging cooling centres, better forecasts and outdoor worker protections now.
Why it matters: With 451,000 projected deaths on top of existing climate-crisis mortality, the toll falls disproportionately on tropical nations that contributed least to global heating. The researchers frame this not as an anomaly but as a preview of what 20 years of further warming will routinely deliver — meaning the protective measures deployed in the next six months are essentially a dry run for the new normal.
Ask SkimNews
