Record El Nino to Cause 451,000 Extra Heat Deaths — SkimNews
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- Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projected 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide from June through February due to this year's El Nino, which is on course to be the strongest on record.
- The Sahel region could see 66,800 extra heat deaths compared to a normal year, with nearly half of that toll concentrated in Nigeria alone.
- Southeast Asia faces a combined projected toll of 38,700 deaths — 19,300 in Indonesia and 19,400 across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.
- India could see 15,800 additional heat deaths and Brazil 13,300, while global land temperatures are projected to run 1.2°C above normal with 44% more extremely hot days than a regular year.
- Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said the projections let decision-makers target emergency actions — heat warnings, cooling centres, and hydration stations — to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.
- The United Nations warned one day before the report that El Nino represents a significant threat to global health.
Why it matters: Developing countries — particularly Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Philippines — face a disproportionate share of an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths over the next five months. Governments and humanitarian groups now have a country-level breakdown to target cooling centres, heat warnings, and hydration stations before peak temperatures arrive.
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