Report Projects 450,000 El Niño Heat Deaths by Feb — SkimNews
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- Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projects roughly 450,000 global heat-related deaths tied to the current El Niño through February, including 240,000 additional deaths expected in the September-to-February forecast window.
- Nigeria faces the heaviest projected toll at over 30,000 excess deaths in the next six months, followed by Indonesia (19,000), India (16,000), and Brazil (13,000), with Africa overall bearing the largest regional burden.
- Emily Grover-Kopec of the Rhodium Group said the southern hemisphere will absorb most of the first wave as El Niño-driven heat coincides with its spring and summer, but flagged a second mortality wave likely to hit the northern hemisphere after February.
- Adults aged 65 and older are the most vulnerable group, followed by infants aged 4 and under, with all three age brackets studied showing elevated mortality risk.
- Christopher Callahan at Indiana University Bloomington called the figure plausible but noted it captures only heat deaths — El Niño also fuels wildfires in Indonesia, infectious disease in South America and flooding in the western US, meaning the real total could climb higher.
- Raquel Nunes at the University of Warwick framed the report as "a call to strengthen anticipatory governance, preparedness and targeted adaptation measures" for vulnerable populations, including deploying health workers, water and cooling.
Why it matters: Public health authorities in Nigeria, Indonesia, India and Brazil have roughly six months to deploy heat-mitigation measures — water, fans, air conditioning, health-worker outreach to elderly and infant populations — before the projection is either borne out or not. The forecast also extends the response window well past this winter, with a second wave of heat deaths projected to cross into the northern hemisphere after February.
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