Huge El Niño projected to cause more than 450,000 deaths by February — SkimNews
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- Climate Impact Lab researchers project 451,000 additional heat deaths globally between June 2026 and February 2027 from the super El Niño, with elevated heat deaths expected to continue through June or July 2027.
- Prof Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago called the figure "numbing" but stressed it is "made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours," and urged governments to act on regional projections to save lives.
- The current El Niño has already broken the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon, months before its expected peak, with scientists describing it as "mind-blowing" and "Godzilla-level."
- Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are the most affected tropical nations in the next six months, while the US — ranked in the top 20 — faces 3,500 projected additional heat deaths.
- Dr Tamma Carleton at UC Berkeley said emergency response can save many lives this year but warned that "20 years from now, once today's extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don't want to be in a constant state of emergency."
- The World Food Programme warned in August that El Niño impacts could push about 50 million people into acute hunger, recalling the 1877–1878 El Niño that killed more than 50 million through drought and famine.
- Prof Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said the event is "dangerous, because it is unfolding on top of a much warmer, human-influenced climate system" that makes heat extremes "never-before-experienced."
Why it matters: The 451,000-death projection from the Climate Impact Lab is actionable: researchers mapped risk to 24,378 regions specifically so governments can deploy cooling centres, boost medical staffing, and protect outdoor workers in Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil before peak heat hits. The framing as a "postcard from our future" forces an uncomfortable conclusion — these deaths are a preview of the routine climate baseline two decades ahead, not a one-off catastrophe.
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