Record El Niño Drives Unprecedented Amazon Drought — SkimNews
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- El Niño is on track to be the most intense in modern history by a large margin, with Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures well above normal and still rising, according to scientists monitoring its development.
- Met Office scientist Adam Scaife forecasts a "terribly dangerous rainfall anomaly" over the Amazon by January, with hotter air temperatures expected alongside it.
- Tim Li at the University of Hawaii says 2026 Amazon rainfall during June-August was already stronger than every previous large El Niño, warning of a feedback loop in which less rainfall reduces evaporation and pushes temperatures higher.
- During the 2015-16 El Niño, Amazon drought fueled wildfires that destroyed around 2.5 billion trees and plants and emitted 495 million tonnes of CO2, per University of Oxford-led research.
- Repeated severe droughts are pushing the Amazon toward a tipping point where the rainforest ecosystem collapses and is replaced by savannah, scientists warn.
Why it matters: The Amazon is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and a key remover of atmospheric CO2, but the 2015-16 El Niño drought alone caused it to emit 495 million tonnes of CO2. With 2026 rainfall anomalies already exceeding every previous large El Niño before peak conditions arrive, the rainforest's capacity to function as a climate buffer is deteriorating under worsening drought stress.
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