Amazon Faces 'Godzilla' El Niño at Worst Possible Time
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- Scientists predict this El Niño will be the strongest in 150 years by a "mind-blowing margin," with its peak hitting the Amazon during the October-December dry season when rivers are lowest and undergrowth is most flammable.
- The Amazon is still recovering from the 2023-24 El Niño, which left rivers at record-low levels, sparked unprecedented fire outbreaks, and caused mass deaths of dolphins and fish; one-third of the forest is now degraded by farming, mining and human-caused climate disruption.
- Carlos Nobre of the University of São Paulo warned the forest must be prepared "from now through the beginning of 2027, at least up to March" for severe drought, citing a three-month lag between Pacific warming and global temperature rises.
- Indigenous communities in the Xingu and Tapajós basins are setting up their own firefighting units after the previous El Niño left some forest communities isolated, thirsty and facing hunger when rivers ran dry.
- Brazil's government has stockpiled food for traditional lands facing increased fire risks, while burned Amazon areas fell to their lowest level since 1985 last year through satellite monitoring and firefighting investment.
- The UN predicts 49 million more people will face acute hunger due to El Niño as global food prices hit a three-year high amid falling harvests worldwide.
Why it matters: The Amazon's role in stabilizing global climate and South American rainfall makes a severe drought a planetary threat, not a regional one. Farmers and food-insecure populations face the most immediate fallout, with the UN projecting 49 million more people in acute hunger and Brazilian ranchers already bracing via WhatsApp alerts for heat-stressed cattle, reduced pasture quality, and water scarcity.
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