Week 3 NFL score predictions, picks: Model reveals projections from 10,000 simulations — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulated every Week 3 NFL game 10,000 times and is projecting the Broncos to beat the Rams 22-21 in Sunday Night Football, making Denver (+2.5) the top against-the-spread pick at a 55% confidence rate with the Over 43.5 clearing 59% of simulations.
- The model entered Week 3 on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and has returned more than $7,000 for $100 players since inception, ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years.
- The Los Angeles Rams will be without pass rusher Myles Garrett for several weeks due to a knee injury and are coming off a 27-7 season-opening loss in Melbourne, effectively playing their second road game in three weeks as the designated away team.
- Broncos quarterback Bo Nix completed 22 of 31 passes for 288 yards and one touchdown in a Week 2 win over Jacksonville after Denver was crushed 31-10 at Kansas City in the opener, with a third straight home game ahead.
- The Ravens vs. Cowboys matchup in Brazil carries the highest total of the Week 3 slate at 53.5 points, while the Titans vs. Giants holds the lowest at 38.5 — a number that dropped five points after rookie Jaxson Dart was ruled out with a knee injury amid shaky weather forecasts.
Why it matters: The model attaches hard percentages to every lean — 55% ATS, 59% Over — giving bettors a quantified edge rather than a hunch on a game where the Rams are missing Myles Garrett and traveling cross-continent for the second time in three weeks. For $100 players following the system since inception, returns exceed $7,000, a track record that separates simulated projections from the expert-panels approach CBS Sports' companion ATS piece relies on.
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