Iran war lifts oil to $110, 45M at risk of hunger
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- Oil stands at about $110 a barrel with some forecasts predicting $150, as the World Food Programme USA warns the resulting fertilizer crunch could push 45 million more people into acute hunger
- UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in March that "fossil fuel dependency is ripping away national security and sovereignty and replacing it with subservience and rising costs," framing the war as the third global shock in six years after Covid-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine
- Petrostates are reaping windfalls: the US oil and gas sector is set for a $60bn boost, Saudi Aramco's share price has surged, Russia's economy has been rescued by soaring commodity prices, and Iran's oil revenues have risen despite attacks on its infrastructure
- China, the world's biggest emitter, added 360GW of new solar and wind capacity in 2024 and 430GW in 2025, poured nearly $1tn into clean energy (roughly four times its $260bn fossil fuel investment), and saw clean energy drive a third of GDP growth last year
- India released a new nationally determined contribution targeting 60% low-carbon electricity by 2035 and a 47% cut in emissions per unit of GDP; the Climate Action Tracker forecasts the 60% target will be hit five years early, by 2030
- Indonesia's $20bn "just transition energy partnership" from Cop26 has faltered as coal mining resurged on high prices, and the country last year launched the world's largest deforestation project — clearing an area the size of Belgium for sugar cane and ethanol
- Iran is among the world's top methane "super-emitters," losing an estimated 40% of its natural gas to leaking and flaring; the article notes that reconstruction of its war-damaged energy infrastructure to higher standards could massively reduce those emissions
Why it matters: The war is simultaneously enriching petrostates — the US oil and gas sector alone is set for a $60bn windfall, while Saudi Aramco shares surge and Russia's war-battered economy gets rescued by high prices — and accelerating a renewable buildout in electrostates led by China, which invested nearly four times more in clean energy ($1tn) than fossil fuels ($260bn) last year. The 45 million additional people facing acute hunger is the humanitarian price of that fossil fuel dependence. For policymakers, the divergence means the next decade of climate progress will be decided not at summits but by which countries treat this crisis as a reason to electrify faster versus which use the windfall to lock in more hydrocarbons.
