Bitcoin to $24K in 50% US Stock Crash: Analyst
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- Jesse Olson, a technical analyst, projects Bitcoin could fall to $23,980 in a severe macro sell-off where US stocks drop more than 50%, drawing the level from a two-week chart anchored to the 2022 bear market bottom using his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.
- The Coinbase Premium Index has stayed largely negative throughout 2026, indicating weaker US institutional demand or heavier selling on the exchange, per CryptoQuant data.
- US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $4.68 billion in net outflows since May, according to SoSoValue, reinforcing the de-risking pattern.
- CryptoQuant's Darkfost said institutional investors 'operate under permanent risk management logic' and are 'looking for confirmation, for performance' — not bottom-buying.
- Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn and pseudonymous trader Crypto Kid have previously said Bitcoin could decline below $30,000 in a stock market crash.
- GMO's Jeremy Grantham has called the current AI boom a major speculative bubble and Michael Burry compared the rally to the final stages of Dot-com mania, while economist Gary Shilling warned a US recession is 'almost inevitable' by year-end with stocks facing a 20%–30% decline.
Why it matters: Bitcoin's institutional setup is already deteriorating — $4.68B in spot ETF outflows since May and a persistently negative Coinbase Premium — so the preconditions for Olson's $23,980 scenario are forming before any actual stock crash hits. The convergence of bubble warnings from Grantham and Burry, plus Shilling's recession call, gives the technical target macro legitimacy rather than standing as an isolated chart reading.
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