Iowa State 3.5-point favorite over Tennessee in Sweet 16
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- Iowa State Cyclones (29-7) and Tennessee Volunteers (24-11) meet in the Midwest Region Sweet 16 at 10:10 p.m. ET on Friday at the United Center in Chicago, with the game airing on TBS
- Iowa State is a 3.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 139.5 total points and money line at Iowa State -176, Tennessee +14
- Iowa State dispatched Kentucky 82-63 and Tennessee beat Virginia 79-72 in the second round, each riding two-game winning streaks into Friday
- Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State's second-leading scorer and top rebounder, is listed as questionable with an ankle injury
- SportsLine's Projection Model projects the Over (139.5) to hit in 74% of 10,000 simulations, forecasting 148 combined points
- Ja'Kobi Gillespie (Tennessee) and Milan Momcilovic (Iowa State) are each projected to score 17.8-17.9 points, with both teams expected to feature two 15-plus-point scorers
- The model entered the Sweet 16 on an 11-1 run on top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season
Why it matters: Iowa State's 3.5-point spread hinges on **Joshua Jefferson's** questionable ankle — he's the team's second-leading scorer and top rebounder. The model's 74% Over confidence and 148-point projection against a 139.5 line implies more scoring than oddsmakers priced in.
