Iran War Squeezes ASEAN, Fuels Myanmar Bombing
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- The Israel-U.S. war on Iran is driving oil price surges and severe supply chain disruptions across ASEAN, with costs falling on ordinary people across the 11-member bloc.
- Myanmar's military received aviation gasoline from Iran, according to Amnesty International, enabling relentless aerial bombing campaigns that have killed thousands of civilians during the country's five-year civil war.
- Russia, which has longstanding ties to Myanmar's junta, is identified as a potential alternative fuel supplier for the military.
- Michael Martin, a retired Congressional Research Service and CSIS specialist on Asian affairs, discussed the war and Trump's foreign policy intentions with The Diplomat's Luke Hunt in Bangkok.
- Martin characterized Trump as operating with "no constraints or restrictions" on executive action, saying Southeast Asian leadership is likely discussing fears that Trump's "capricious eye" could turn toward them.
- Martin noted Trump's attention is fleeting: "Something catches his attention and he's interested in it. But if there's nothing interesting there, then he forgets about it. He doesn't even know it exists."
Why it matters: The Iran war has two distinct Southeast Asian consequences the article connects: economic pain for ASEAN consumers through oil and supply chain shocks, and the direct enabling of Myanmar's military atrocities against civilians via Iranian aviation fuel. Southeast Asian governments are now also recalculating exposure to a U.S. president described as having no executive constraints.
