US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely in 2027 despite 2027 timeline, sources say — SkimNews
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- US officials assess a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Xi Jinping's 2027 military readiness order, citing delays from anti-corruption purges paralyzing PLA leadership
- Xi Jinping has not rescinded his 2027 directive, but the People's Liberation Army's Central Military Commission has been reduced to just two active members (from seven) by corruption investigations
- Beijing may increasingly weigh military action after 2028 if Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term, especially if President Lai Ching-te secures re-election, one US official said
- Trump has downplayed the invasion threat, saying Xi told him China would not invade during his presidency, and has held off approving a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan since his May trip to Beijing
- The US intelligence community stated in its March annual threat assessment that China did not have a plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and still preferred to bring the island under control without force
- China's military is believed to have drawn lessons from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, concluding any invasion of Taiwan must be swift and decisive to avoid getting bogged down in a prolonged conflict, a US official said
Why it matters: Xi's 2027 invasion-readiness directive is now seen as unachievable, with anti-corruption purges leaving the PLA's Central Military Commission with just two active members from seven. The $14 billion in frozen US arms sales since May shows Trump treating Taiwan's defense as a bargaining chip in dealings with Beijing.
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