SportsLine Model Backs Under in North Texas vs. Tulsa — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- North Texas enters Thursday's American Conference opener at 2-2 after a 63-14 win over Houston Christian, but is 0-2 on the road this season despite winning the last three meetings against Tulsa.
- Tulsa (3-1) is a 1.5-point home favorite at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium, where it is 2-0 in 2026 and riding five straight Under results, with the Under hitting in all four games this season.
- SportsLine model projects 54 total points after 10,000 simulations, making the Under 56.5 the value pick in 57% of simulations, and identifies one spread side hitting over 60% of the time.
- Tulsa quarterback Baylor Hayes (knee) is questionable, while Damari Alston (45 carries, 213 yards, 4 TDs) and Trequan Jones (29 carries, 196 yards, 2 TDs) anchor a ground game that has powered an upset of Oklahoma State.
- North Texas quarterback Tayven Jackson has completed 74.2% of his passes for 1,187 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, fueling an offense whose games have gone Over in three of four contests this season.
Why it matters: Tulsa's home form and defensive improvement — anchored by five straight Unders and a Week 1 win over Oklahoma State — collide with North Texas's road struggles (0-2) and explosive passing attack led by Tayven Jackson, creating a tight spread (1.5 points) where the model's 54-point projection leans toward a lower-scoring game than the 56.5 line, giving bettors a quantifiable edge on the total.
Ask SkimNews
