IEA: Oil Recovery May Take Two Years After Iran War
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- IEA chief Fatih Birol said it could take up to two years to restore a meaningful share of oil and gas production lost in the Iran war.
- IEA estimates the war has already knocked out as much as 13 million barrels per day of oil production, with total export losses—including refined products—higher.
- Oil and gas facilities across the Persian Gulf have been damaged, with more than 80 affected, and the Strait of Hormuz has been largely shut, removing hundreds of millions of barrels from the market.
- Spot crude prices for immediate delivery have surged, with some barrels trading near $150 as refiners in Europe and Asia compete for limited supply and cut runs.
- Natural gas recovery may be slower, with some LNG terminals expected to need more than two years to resume normal operations after damage.
- Emerging markets in Asia and Africa, which rely heavily on imported energy, are expected to feel the hardest impact, with early signs of demand destruction such as fuel rationing and rising inflation.
Why it matters: The prolonged recovery means energy‑importing economies, especially in Asia and Africa, will face higher fuel costs and possible rationing, while refiners in Europe and Asia scramble for scarce crude, reinforcing price spikes and supply strain and pressure on inflation in import‑dependent nations.
