Waymo crashes 68% less than humans: IIHS
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- IIHS found Waymo crashed 68% less than average human drivers across 50 million autonomous miles (2021-2024), logging 1.28 crashes per million miles versus 4.06 for humans
- Waymo crashes tended to be less severe and not the Waymo's fault, though it had a higher share of crashes in dark conditions despite using radar and LiDAR
- Results held in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, but Austin showed a slightly higher crash rate for Waymo—likely due to a small sample size during 2024 testing
- The study's caveats include Waymo's preference for low-speed streets (half its crashes under 25mph vs. 8% for humans), exclusion of highway miles, and roughly half of miles driven with no humans aboard
- Waymo's own prior self-reported studies claimed 85% fewer injury-causing crashes and 25x safer performance for pedestrians and cyclists, but those lacked independent verification—making this IIHS analysis notable as external confirmation
- Tesla is excluded from the dataset, having only launched its Austin robotaxi in 2025 with safety drivers and accumulating just 380,000 unsupervised miles all-time
Why it matters: This is the first major independent safety benchmark for any robotaxi operator, giving Waymo measurable credibility over rivals like Tesla, whose driver-supervised Austin launch and 380,000 total unsupervised miles don't yet meet the data bar for comparable analysis. The 68% figure also sits well below Waymo's own internal claims of 85% fewer injury crashes and 25x safer pedestrian performance—giving the company a conservatively credible talking point backed by outside researchers rather than its own employees.
