College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 5, 2026: Computer likes Navy, Missouri — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.
- Navy (+3.5) covers at Air Force in well over 60% of simulations as an A-rated pick, with running back Vic Listorti projected to rush for nearly 150 yards in Saturday's noon ET kickoff on CBS.
- Air Force has lost six straight ATS at home versus FBS teams and five straight outright in the Commander-in-Chief's series, trends the model weighs in Navy's favor.
- Missouri (+5) covers at home versus No. 8 Florida in nearly 60% of simulations, with the Tigers 23-3 over their last 26 home games and just two giveaways — fewest in the SEC.
- Florida ranks fourth in FBS with 357 penalty yards and is 0-3 straight up as a road favorite versus ranked squads since 2010, undercutting its ranking in the model.
- Iowa sits as a 14.5-point home underdog to No. 5 Ohio State despite being undefeated and ranked 14th, while No. 2 Georgia lays the week's largest spread at 25 points to Vanderbilt.
Why it matters: Bettors following the model have a documented edge — nearly $600 return per $100 risked across a 32-24 pick span — and the top Week 5 plays rest on concrete trends (Air Force's six-game home ATS losing streak, Missouri's 23-3 home record) rather than narrative hype, giving disciplined bettors actionable spots before Saturday.
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