Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction, odds, time: Week 5 college football picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Alabama (4-0, 2-0 SEC) enters Week 5 after a 49-18 rout of South Carolina, with sophomore QB Keelon Russell throwing for 365 yards
- Mississippi State (4-0, 2-0 SEC), ranked No. 16 nationally, is coming off a 31-24 win over Missouri last week
- Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite with kickoff set for noon ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, with the over/under at 61.5
- SportsLine's Projection Model simulated the matchup 10,000 times, projecting the Over on 61.5 to hit 66% of the time with a 66-point combined total
- Alabama averages 48 points per game (3rd in SEC) and Mississippi State averages 43 PPG (4th in SEC), with both defenses giving up more than 20 points and seven of their combined eight games this season clearing the total
- Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor and Alabama's Russell sit 3rd and 4th in 2026 Heisman Trophy odds at +750 and +1100, respectively
Why it matters: With both teams undefeated, averaging 43+ points per game, and conceding 20+, this is a Week 5 matchup where the offensive firepower on both sides has cleared the total in seven of their combined eight games this season. The SportsLine model — on a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks — is giving the Over 61.5 a 66% hit probability with a 66-point projection, giving bettors a quantified lean on a total rather than just a side.
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