Florida State vs. Louisville prediction, odds, time: Week 6 college football Friday picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model projects 54 combined points across 10,000 simulations and backs the Under at 59.5 as a value play hitting at a 58% rate.
- Louisville enters as a 3.5-point favorite at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium despite a 2-3 overall record and back-to-back losses, with kickoff set for 7 p.m. ET on Friday.
- Florida State (3-2, 1-1 ACC) has won two straight, capped by a 38-7 rout of Virginia in Week 5, but is 0-1 on the road this season.
- Louisville QB Lincoln Kienoltz (junior) has completed 69.1% of his passes for 1,394 yards with 9 touchdowns and just 1 interception this season.
- Florida State QB Ashton Daniels (senior) has completed 60.3% of his passes for 1,111 yards with 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
- The Under has hit in 3 of the past 5 head-to-head meetings and in 8 of Florida State's last 10 games, per the model.
- Florida State leads the all-time series 18-6 and has won the last two meetings between the ACC rivals.
Why it matters: Louisville's quarterback profile (69.1% completion, 9 TDs, 1 INT) is statistically superior to Florida State's (60.3% completion, 6 TDs, 6 INTs), yet oddsmakers have Louisville installed as only a 3.5-point favorite — and the model projects a sub-60 total — meaning bettors weighing both the spread and total face a market that may be undervaluing Kienoltz while overestimating the game's pace.
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