Week 5 College Football Picks: Model Backs Navy, Missouri — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model has simulated every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players, per the source.
- Navy (+3, 45.5) covers versus Air Force in over 60% of simulations in an A-rated pick, with running back Vic Listorti projected to rush for nearly 150 yards.
- No. 25 Missouri (+5.5, 57.5) covers at home versus No. 8 Florida in nearly 60% of simulations; the source notes the home team has won each of the last four matchups and Missouri is 23-3 over its last 26 home games.
- Florida has compiled 357 penalty yards — fourth-most in FBS — while Missouri has just two giveaways (fewest in the SEC), and the model projects the Under to hit over 50% of the time.
- Undefeated No. 14 Iowa is a 14.5-point home underdog to No. 5 Ohio State, while No. 2 Georgia lays the week's largest spread at 25 points against Vanderbilt.
- Air Force has lost six straight ATS at home versus FBS teams and five straight outright in the Commander-in-Chief's series, which begins Saturday at noon ET on CBS.
Why it matters: Bettors following the model have seen nearly 6:1 returns on $100 wagers over its 56 tracked picks, making its two featured Week 5 selections — Navy and Missouri as underdogs — the highest-confidence plays among the slate's ranked matchups. The Florida-Missouri angle is particularly actionable: a sloppy, road-favored Gators team against a disciplined Tigers squad that protects the ball.
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