China Sub-Launches Ballistic Missile in South Pacific
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- China's navy test-launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the South Pacific at 12:01 p.m. Monday, carrying a dummy warhead according to Xinhua News Agency — its first Pacific missile test in two years and the first in decades since 1980.
- Xinhua described the launch as routine annual training complying with international law, but New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said China carried out the test "within hours of informing us" and fired into the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone established by the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga, which China ratified protocols to in 1987.
- Japan's Defense Ministry expressed concern and asked Beijing to "rethink" its missile testing so projectiles don't fly over Japan, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara citing China's lack of transparency, active military activity around Japan, and increased military spending.
- Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong called the test "destabilizing to the region," and the launch occurred the same day Australia and Fiji signed a new mutual defense treaty meant to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific.
- China maintains a "no first use" nuclear policy but is actively expanding its arsenal, with a fleet of six ballistic-missile submarines and 59 nuclear-powered attack submarines per the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
- The Pentagon estimated China's 2024 nuclear warhead stockpile at approximately 600 and said the PLA remains on track to field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
Why it matters: China fired into a zone it pledged in 1987 not to test in, and timed the launch the same day Australia and Fiji signed a mutual defense treaty explicitly aimed at countering Beijing — the diplomatic signaling matters as much as the missile itself, especially for Japan, which demanded Beijing "rethink" tests that fly over its territory.
