Model backs Chiefs, Commanders in Week 9 NFL picks — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, entered Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run with top-rated picks dating back to 2024, up more than $5,000 for $100 players since its inception, and has issued calls on every matchup including four A-rated spread picks.
- Chiefs (-9.5, total 48) are projected to cover against the Jets at 1 p.m. ET in more than 50% of simulations; Kansas City is 4-1 ATS over its last five games as favorites of more than a touchdown, while the Jets are 2-4 over their last six such games as underdogs.
- Commanders (+4.5, total 48.5) cover at home against the Rams in over 50% of simulations, supported by a 3-1 ATS mark in games Jayden Daniels has started and finished and an NFL-best plus-seven turnover differential.
- Rams were gashed for 234 rushing yards in a Week 5 loss to the Bills and Josh Allen and are 1-3 against the spread over their last four games in the Eastern Time Zone, while the Commanders average over 140 rushing yards in Daniels' starts.
- Geno Smith is projected to fall short of 200 passing yards with the Jets held to 3.8 yards per carry against Kansas City's No. 5 scoring defense, which faces New York's No. 25 scoring offense; the Over is hitting well over 50% of the time.
- Bengals are favored by three points over the Falcons in Madrid, Spain, while Atlanta became the first team shut out this season in a 16-0 Sunday loss to Tampa Bay; the source also frames Bills-Vikings (+3), Patriots-Packers (+3) and Broncos-Panthers (+2.5) as potential Super Bowl previews.
- Drew Lock fills in for an injured Sam Darnold in the NFC West, while Gardner Minshew replaces Jacoby Brissett, who headed to the Ravens in a trade.
Why it matters: Washington's pick rests on two measurable edges — an NFL-best plus-seven turnover differential and over 140 rushing yards in Jayden Daniels' starts — against a Rams team that allowed 234 ground yards to Buffalo. Kansas City's is a matchup of a No. 5 scoring defense against the No. 25 offense, with four A-rated spread picks locked behind SportsLine's full board.
Ask SkimNews
