Bitcoin Bottomed 125 Days Before U.S. Midterms — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin recorded bear-market lows in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after the preceding U.S. midterm elections.
- Bitcoin touched $57,850 on July 1, 125 days before the November 3 election and well ahead of the previous post-election bottoms.
- Bitcoin recovered about 40% from its July 1 low to roughly $81,455 by October 22, despite declining around 6% over the preceding 30 days.
- Bitcoin fell approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote, documenting substantial pre-election weakness.
- QQQ dropped roughly 23% between the end of September and its December 2018 low, much of it after Election Day; it also lost 17% in the three months before the 2022 vote but gained 17% in the six months before the 2014 midterms.
- Bitcoin and QQQ were both down roughly 6% over 30 days, but Bitcoin gained 26% over 90 days versus QQQ's 3%, undercutting the idea of a consistent midterm effect.
Why it matters: For Bitcoin traders, the election calendar is less reliable as a trough guide: this year's low came 125 days before Nov. 3, versus 13-71 days after prior midterms, and a roughly 40% recovery followed by Oct. 22 despite a recent 6% pullback.
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