Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool: Model Says Fade the Cowboys — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- The SportsLine Projection Model projects the Dallas Cowboys as an "extremely risky" Week 1 survivor pool selection, giving the New York Giants a 46% win probability in a game it projects as a 2-point contest, despite Dallas being -159 on the money line and a 3-point favorite.
- The Cowboys are just 2-4 over their last six Week 1 games and lost four of their final five games in 2025 after Dak Prescott's 4,552-yard, 30-touchdown, 10-interception season entering his 11th year.
- The Giants hired former Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh after going 4-13 in 2025; second-year QB Jaxson Dart threw for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 14 games last season, while receiver Malik Nabers (knee) is reportedly trending toward playing in Week 1.
- The 2026 NFL season opens Wednesday at 8:20 p.m. ET with a Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks, bookending a slate of divisional matchups including 49ers-Rams (-3.5) in Australia, Packers-Vikings (-1.5), Commanders-Eagles (-5.5), Cowboys-Giants (+3), and Broncos-Chiefs (-2.5) on Monday night.
- Three Week 1 games carry spreads of a touchdown or more — Cardinals at Chargers (-9.5), Browns at Jaguars (-8.5), and Saints at Lions (-7) — forcing survivor pool entrants to choose between locking in heavy chalk or preserving stronger teams for later weeks.
- The model's locked-in survivor pick wins outright in over 80% of its 10,000 simulations per game, though the specific team is paywalled at SportsLine; the model enters 2026 on a 53-37 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024 and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players since inception.
Why it matters: Week 1 is the toughest survivor slate of the season because there is no in-season data to evaluate form, and the model's 46% projected win rate for the Giants against a 3-point home favorite directly undercuts the chalk play survivor pools default to. Combined with Dallas's 2-4 Week 1 record over the past six openers, following the public favorite could burn an early elimination on the single riskiest betting week of the year.
Ask SkimNews
