Ohio State's CFP path tightens after stunning Texas loss — SkimNews
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- Arch Manning and Texas stunned top-ranked Ohio State with 21 fourth-quarter points, dealing the Buckeyes a damaging early-season loss before Big Ten play begins.
- Ohio State's remaining schedule features five matchups against ranked opponents: at No. 21 Iowa (Oct. 3), at No. 5 Indiana (Oct. 17), at No. 14 USC (Oct. 31), vs. No. 6 Oregon (Nov. 7), and vs. Michigan (Nov. 28).
- The Buckeyes remain -145 to make the CFP — sixth-best among all college football teams — with the likeliest 10-2 projection putting them around the 8-seed range.
- A 9-3 finish falls into a 'danger scenario' because no three-loss team has ever made the CFP without appearing in a conference championship game.
- Ryan Day has never had to politick for a playoff spot at Ohio State, but an unfamiliar logjam of bid-seekers could await if the Buckeyes stumble in Big Ten play.
- The Oct. 3 trip to Iowa is effectively a must-win — a loss there likely eliminates Ohio State given the gauntlet of ranked opponents immediately following.
Why it matters: Ohio State still controls its CFP destiny, but the cushion is gone. With four or five ranked games remaining and no three-loss team ever making the 12-team bracket without a conference title game appearance, the Buckeyes must essentially run the table — starting with Iowa on Oct. 3 — or risk forcing Ryan Day, who has never had to lobby for a playoff spot, into an unprecedented politicking situation.
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