ASEAN Risks Irrelevance as Sub-Groupings Grow: Kao — SkimNews
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- Kao Kim Hourn warned on Sept 14 at the third ASEAN Think Tanks Summit in Jakarta that ASEAN risks losing relevance as countries form smaller security groupings, with the summit drawing more than 150 diplomats, policymakers and researchers.
- Kao cited emerging arrangements including the US–Japan–Philippines trilateral, whose leaders held their first summit in 2024, and growing four-way cooperation dubbed the "Squad" (US, Japan, Australia, Philippines) as evidence of fragmentation.
- Kao urged ASEAN to make better use of existing forums including the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum and ADMM-Plus, which already bring the bloc together with China and the US.
- Singapore takes over as ASEAN chair from the Philippines in 2027, when ASEAN marks 60 years since its 1967 founding — a milestone Kao said should prompt reflection on whether ASEAN's institutions remain fit for purpose.
- Kao said ASEAN centrality "cannot rest on institutional inheritance alone" and must be "earned continually" through the ability to unite countries, manage differences and enable collective action.
- Kao flagged economic resilience, AI and emerging technologies, maritime tensions, cyberattacks, online scams, transnational crime and climate-related disasters as interconnected challenges heading into ASEAN's seventh decade.
Why it matters: With Singapore assuming the ASEAN chair in 2027 for the bloc's 60th anniversary, Kao's warning reframes the next two years as a credibility test: ASEAN must deliver tangible results through existing forums like the East Asia Summit and ADMM-Plus, or watch its convening role erode as minilateral arrangements like the US–Japan–Philippines trilateral absorb security functions the bloc once owned.
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