Bitcoin's Next Move: Bullish Bets Run Up Against a Historical Wall — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin gained nearly 25% in August — its best August since 2017 — closing the month back above its 50-month moving average for the first time since the crypto winter began.
- Bitcoin opened September at $78,571 before sliding to an intraday low of $77,440, sitting just below a resistance zone spanning $81,455 to $82,538.
- The August rally traces to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's August 19 move to double long-end bond buybacks, which hammered Treasury yields and triggered a crypto short squeeze that briefly pushed Bitcoin above $81,000.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address as chairman to call inflation "more concerning" than the labor market, reviving rate hike talk ahead of the September 15-16 Fed meeting.
- On Myriad Markets, traders price a 77% chance Bitcoin reaches $84,000 before falling back to $55,000 — a lopsided read that the source notes reflects August's momentum more than current chart action.
- Daily technicals show RSI at 66.1 (approaching the overbought 70 mark), ADX at 43.7 (confirming a real trend), but the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain in a bearish crossover.
- Treasury's buyback program runs through the November 4 refunding quarter, with spot Bitcoin ETFs continuing net inflows and the SEC's crypto rulemaking advancing as supportive macro tailwinds.
Why it matters: Bulls now have a structural argument — the 10-month winter signal just broke on the monthly chart, and trend-following capital tends to chase higher-timeframe confirmations. But the September 15-16 Fed meeting and September's track record as Bitcoin's worst calendar month since 2013 stack seasonal and policy headwinds directly against the $82,500 resistance wall.
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